Phuket Property Market: Is the Boom Starting to Cool?

The Phuket property market is cooling, but it is not crashing. New sales and launches have fallen sharply from the 2024 peak, while ownership transfers and foreign condo demand are holding, so this is a slowdown by segment and not a market-wide collapse. Villas are the weakest segment, and a few launch-heavy areas carry the most oversupply risk.

This guide puts dated numbers behind that verdict, separates villas from condos, and explains what a cooler market means if you plan to buy, hold or sell in 2026 and 2027. Most figures come from Krungsri Research's Phuket housing outlook (28 August 2026), with supporting data from REIC and CBRE.

Phuket Property Market Key Figures for 2024, 2025 and 2026

The table shows how far the market has moved. Figures marked "implied" are calculated from the percentage changes Krungsri reports, so treat them as approximate.

Context matters here. 2024 was an unusual peak, with launches up 101.0% and sales up 121.3% on 2023. Part of the 2025 fall is therefore a return from a spike and not only a loss of demand. Even so, 5,374 sales is well below the 2024 level, and unsold stock keeps growing, which is why the slowdown is real.

Signs the Phuket Real Estate Market Is Slowing

Five indicators point the same way, and each is dated below.

• Launches halved. Developers launched 7,205 units in 2025, down 52.6% from the 2024 record. Krungsri expects a further 4.2% fall in 2026, then growth of 2.4% to 3.0% a year in 2027 and 2028.

• Sales fell faster than launches. Buyers took 5,374 units in 2025, down 61.1%, and sales value dropped 65.4% to THB 38.3 billion.

• Unsold stock is building. Year-end 2025 stock reached 14,008 units worth THB 193.7 billion, up 33.3% in units. Condos make up 12,346 of them.

• Clearing stock takes longer. Krungsri estimates about 30 months for condos and about 50 months for villas. Villa absorption slowed to 1.8% a month from 6.3%.

• Tourism is softer. CBRE's H1 2026 Phuket figures show airport arrivals of 4.39 million, down 1.4% on H1 2025, with hotel occupancy down 0.8 percentage points. Rental income depends on these visitors.

Taken together, these indicators suggest developers over-built in 2024 and are now working through that stock. Krungsri's forecast of a further 4.2% launch fall in 2026 shows new supply is still arriving, only more slowly.

What Is Holding Up in the Phuket Property Market

Completed deals and foreign buying tell a calmer story than launches and sales.

• Transfers are steady. Phuket recorded 10,435 ownership transfers in 2025, up 0.1%. Q1 2026 reached 2,548 units, up 17.9% year on year, with value up 71.2% to THB 5.2 billion. Transfers record completed handovers, which often reflect deals signed earlier, so they lag new sales.

• Foreign condo demand is rising. Foreign buyers took 1,190 condo transfers in 2025, up 18.3%, worth THB 6.1 billion. Q1 2026 added 420 units, up 52.2%. Phuket held 82.3% of Southern Thailand's foreign condo transfers in 2025.

• Condos outperform houses. Condo transfers rose 13.0% to 5,317 units in 2025, while low-rise transfers fell 10.5% to 5,118.

Foreign buyers can own condos freehold within a building's 49% foreign quota, which helps explain why condo demand holds better than villa demand. Our guide on whether foreigners can buy property in Phuket covers the rules in full.

Krungsri's outlook is stabilisation and not a rebound. It projects sales growth of 1.7% to 2.7% a year in 2027 and 2028, from a much lower base than 2024.

Phuket Villa Prices and Sales: Why Villas Are the Weak Segment

Villas took the hardest hit in the Phuket real estate market. Krungsri reports 475 villa sales in 2025, down 69.6%, against 641 villa launches, down 60.6%. Remaining villa supply rose 56.4% to 2,043 units, and the 50-month clearance estimate compares with about 10 months in 2024.

CBRE's H1 2026 data shows developers have not stopped. It counts 16 villa projects and 224 units launched, with the THB 15 million to 35 million range the largest share. None of the sources in this article publish a Phuket villa price index, so we cannot say villa prices have fallen. What the stock numbers show is who holds leverage: owners and developers with unsold villas face a long wait, which tends to push them towards discounts, incentives or flexible payment terms.

Condos slowed too, with 4,758 sold in 2025, down 60.1%. They clear faster and have foreign demand behind them. Villa buyers also need to remember that foreigners cannot own land outright. The usual routes are a registered leasehold of up to 30 years, renewable, or a Thai company structure, so take advice from a licensed Thai lawyer. You can compare current villas for sale in Phuket with this in mind.

Areas Most Exposed to Oversupply in Phuket

Krungsri does not name oversupply locations. It does warn of oversupply "in certain locations" and notes that most 2025 launches concentrated in Bang Tao and Choeng Thale (Cherngtalay). REIC figures reported by The Phuket News in May 2025 also showed unsold units outnumbering sold units in Bang Tao and Surin Beach, at 4,466 unsold against 3,428 sold.

• Bang Tao and Choeng Thale: the heaviest launch concentration, so the most new stock competing for buyers.

• Surin Beach: grouped with Bang Tao in the REIC data, with the same supply pressure.

• Conventional and less attractive sites: Krungsri flags these as most at risk, wherever they sit.

Krungsri lists Kamala, Patong, Rawai, Bang Jo and Pasak among its higher-potential areas. That is a ranking of potential and not a price guarantee. For area-by-area comparisons, see where to buy property in Phuket in 2026.

What a Cooler Phuket Real Estate Market Means for Buyers

A slower market shifts leverage towards buyers. Three changes matter most.

• More room to negotiate. With 14,008 unsold units, developers and owners have reasons to offer discounts, furniture packages or staged payments. Ask for them in writing.

• Completed stock over off-plan. REIC data reported by Bangkok Post in September 2025 put the average off-plan condo at THB 121,000 per sqm in 2024, against THB 68,000 for resale. Location and unit type explain part of that gap, but it shows the premium for new. Completed units also let you check service charges and real rents first. CBRE also reports H1 2026 condo completions of 1,196 units, down 56.8% on H2 2025, linked to handover delays, which is a risk for off-plan buyers.

• Realistic yields. Brochure returns deserve scrutiny, as the next section shows. You can browse condos for sale in Phuket and focus on completed buildings.

Timing deserves a note. Krungsri projects gradual stabilisation and not a sharp reset, so waiting for a dramatic drop is a gamble. A better approach is to set a budget and a minimum net yield, then buy only when a specific unit clears both.

Phuket Property Investment Return: Gross vs Net Yield

A gross yield is annual rent divided by purchase price, before costs. A net yield deducts common area fees, management, maintenance, tax and vacancy. Always ask which one a seller quotes.

Here is an illustration, not market data. A condo bought for THB 6,000,000 and rented at THB 35,000 a month earns THB 420,000 a year, a 7.0% gross yield. If costs and vacancy take 30% to 40% of rent, the net yield falls to about 4.2% to 4.9%. Softer tourism and heavy new supply can push both rent and occupancy lower. Our piece on the realities of owning real estate in Phuket covers ownership costs in more detail.

What to Do Now in the Phuket Property Market

• If you are buying: shortlist completed units, negotiate, and ask for 12 months of rental statements. For a villa, confirm the land structure and lease terms before paying a deposit.

• If you already own: there is no need to panic, since transfers are steady. In launch-heavy areas such as Bang Tao, price realistically, because new stock competes with yours.

• If you are investing: compare net yields, not headlines, and prefer areas with proven rental demand over areas with the most launches.

Is Now a Good Time to Buy Property in Phuket?

For patient buyers, yes, with conditions. The market has slowed, supply is high in places, and villas are the weak spot, but completed deals and foreign condo demand are holding. Browse the latest properties for sale in Phuket on Nestopa, compare completed projects against new launches, and use the stock figures above to negotiate.